The election results Tuesday showed that the BJP fell short of the 272 seats needed for a majority of its own in the Lok Sabha, though the party-led National Democratic Alliance has emerged as the largest coalition.
The ET analysis indicates that while the BJP-led government achieved an average 7.4% annual growth in its first term between 2014 and 2019 – the fastest since 1989, when the coalition era started – growth rates under coalitions with no party in majority weren’t bad either. The average growth rate for the 10-year period for the BJP-led majority government was 6%, including the 5.8% contraction the economy witnessed in FY21 amid Covid-related disruptions.
The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government that preceded the BJP government in 2014 secured 6.7% growth in its five years, and 6.9% in the previous five years of its first term. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the 10-year rule of the UPA at 6.8% was the fastest in India’s history.
Growth averaged 5.6% between 1991, when the Congress led by PV Narasimha Rao formed a minority coalition with Janata Dal, and 1999 when Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA returned to power for its full five-year term.
Both Rao and Vajpayee are credited with unleashing next-generation reforms. In 1991, Rao, with Manmohan Singh as the finance minister, led the drive for India’s liberalisation and privatisation reforms.
On the other hand, such coalitions have faltered on inflation. Inflation for industrial workers, the only comparable metric that dates back to 30 years ago, was 5.4% during the Narendra Modi government’s two tenures, when the BJP had an absolute majority, but was 10.3% for UPA’s second stint and 6% in the first one. While it was low for Vajpayee’s years between 1999 and 2004, industrial worker inflation was 9.6% between 1991 and 1999.
