In absolute terms, the net tax revenue of the Centre is expected to be pegged at ₹25-26 lakh crore.
In the current fiscal, the Centre has budgeted ₹23.3 lakh crore net tax revenue.
The revised estimate for net tax revenue receipt in the current fiscal year, after devolution to states, will be at about the same level as the budget estimate, considering the likely shortfall in excise duty collections, people aware of the details told ET.
The excise duty target for next fiscal is likely to be at ₹3 lakh crore. In the current fiscal year, excise duty collections are expected to fall short by ₹45,000 crore from the budgeted target of ₹3.39 lakh crore.
“The target for net revenue receipt for the next fiscal year will be modest, ranging between 9-11%,” a senior official told ET, adding that this is also on account of the already high base. Tax receipts have exceeded revised estimates in the last two years.
The government has budgeted its gross tax revenue at ₹33.6 lakh crore for FY24. Devolution to the states from the Centre’s tax revenue is estimated to be ₹10.2 lakh crore in FY24.
After devolution, the Centre’s net tax receipt is expected to be at ₹23.30 lakh crore, which is 11.7% higher than the revised estimate in FY23.
Independent assessments estimate a sharper rise in taxes. According to the latest report by Goldman Sachs, income taxes and corporate tax are expected to grow by 15% in FY25, and GST is expected to record a jump of 11%.
A modest tax target will give fiscal headroom if the collections are better. “It is better to keep it understated considering that global crisis is far from over,” the official said.
India’s net direct tax collections touched ₹14.7 lakh crore by January 10, reflecting a growth of 19.4% over the same period of FY23 and crossed 80% of the budgeted direct tax target of ₹18.22 lakh crore.
